 &MODEL
 NLIST   =           1,
 NSTEP   =        2000,
 EPSI    =  1.0000000E-07,
 WGHT    =   1.000000    ,
 NOBS    =         120,
 NAMY    =   'TOTFLOW',
 NVAXZ   =           4,
 NVAX    =           4,
 NORDER  =           1,
 NVAZ    =           0,
 NLAMZ   =           0,
 NLAMY   =           1,
 NLAMX   =           1,
 NSCALE  =           1,
 NEXPY   =           0,
 NRES    =           0,
 NCOR    =           0,
 NCOV    =           0,
 VARNAME = BC1+AU+PR,
 NVARIANT        =           4
 /
 &AUTOCOR
 RHO     = 2*0.000000000000000E+000  ,
 PI      =  0.990000000000000     ,  0.000000000000000E+000,
 NTPI    =           1,   538976288,
 MATFILE = R320km.in                                                                                                                 
                                       
 /
 &YBOXCOX
 VLY     =  0.000000000000000E+000,
 NTLY    =           1,
 NUMLXY  =           1
 /
 &XBOXCOX
 NUMX    =           1,           2,           3,           4, 46*0,
 NUMLX   = 4*1, 46*0,
 VLX     = 10*0.000000000000000E+000  ,
 NTLX    =           1, 9*0
 /
 &YXZDATA
 YXZFILE = Canada1976.in                                                                   ,
 YXZFMT  = (5e15.5)                                                                        
 /

VARIABLE       MINIMUM         MEAN          MAXIMUM   NULL OBS.      SCALE
DEPENDENT
TOTFLOW     0.2577000D+04  0.1476588D+06  0.2736000D+07     0     0.1000000D-05
INDEPENDENT
POP         0.8591300D+05  0.5297039D+06  0.2802800D+07     0     0.1000000D-05
REVE        0.3698300D+04  0.4258776D+04  0.4808200D+04     0     0.1000000D-02
LANGFR      0.5600000D+01  0.7329333D+02  0.9990000D+02     0     0.1000000D+00
UTILITY     0.5655600D-04  0.4915871D-01  0.1172800D+01     0     0.1000000D+01
CONSTANT    0.1000000D+01  0.1000000D+01  0.1000000D+01     0     0.1000000D+01


MRS of X(l) with respect to X(k) - at the sample means
===================================================================================================================================
        X(k) POP         REVE        LANGFR      UTILITY     CONSTANT  
X(l)
===================================================================================================================================

POP          0.1000D+01  0.7451D+02  0.3456D+03  0.4914D+07  0.1889D+06

REVE         0.1342D-01  0.1000D+01  0.4639D+01  0.6595D+05  0.2536D+04

LANGFR       0.2893D-02  0.2156D+00  0.1000D+01  0.1422D+05  0.5466D+03

UTILITY      0.2035D-06  0.1516D-04  0.7034D-04  0.1000D+01  0.3845D-01

CONSTANT     0.5293D-05  0.3944D-03  0.1829D-02  0.2601D+02  0.1000D+01


INITIAL ESTIMATES

             LAM    PARAMETER      STD-ERROR        STUDENT-T    GRADIENT       DERIV.Y         ELAST.Y
                                                                                DERIV.E(Y)      ELAST.E(Y)


POP           X1  0.1389205D+01  0.5457770D-01     25.4537107  0.4002112D-09  0.3872510D+00      1.3892049
                                                                              0.4970914D+00      1.3892049

REVE          X1  0.8322593D+00  0.6932686D+00      1.2004861 -0.6521993D-09  0.2885581D+02      0.8322593
                                                                              0.3626500D-01      0.8322593

LANGFR        X1  0.6643968D-01  0.5550501D-01      1.1970033 -0.8357800D-09  0.1338513D+03      0.0664397
                                                                              0.1916400D-02      0.0664397

UTILITY       X1  0.6335200D+00  0.1496708D-01     42.3275532  0.2744231D-08  0.1902915D+07      0.6335200
                                                                              0.2843971D+02      0.6335200

CONSTANT      X0  0.4955077D+00  0.9808520D+00      0.5051808 -0.4526935D-09  0.7316608D+05      0.4955077
                                                                              0.9221363D-01      0.4955077

VAR(W)            0.1312324D+00  0.1694202D-01      7.7459667  0.0000000D+00

INITIAL VALUES
 
RHO1           0.0000000D+00
PI1            0.9900000D+00
 
LAM(Y)         0.0000000D+00
LAM(X1)        0.0000000D+00

LAM(Y) is set equal to LAM(X1).


LOG-LIKELIHOOD =  0.3396262D+03

NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS              =            120

PEARSON-R2(E) (unadjusted)          =         0.8850
PEARSON-R2(E) (adjusted for D.F.)   =         0.8810

PSEUDO-R2(L)  (unadjusted)          =         0.9441
PSEUDO-R2(L)  (adjusted for D.F.)   =         0.9422

PROBABILITY of Y to be at the limit =         0.0000
MEAN VALUE of E(Y)                  =  0.1860993D+00

MEAN of residual W                  = -0.4950736D-12
VARIANCE of residual W              =  0.1312324D+00
95% CONFIDENCE INTERVAL for residual W
Lower Bound = -0.7100297D+00   Upper Bound =  0.7100297D+00




initialization cards for control routine follow - -  id card - no. parameters , no. steps , step size 
minimization tolerance - starting values of parameters - relative uncertainties of parameters (error estimates) -  
and starting direction  (relative parameter increments for 1st step)
identification line
         3      2000   0.1E+01   0.1E-06
  0.00000E+00  0.45951E+01  0.00000E+00
  0.10000E+01  0.10000E+01  0.10000E+01
  0.00000E+00  0.00000E+00  0.00000E+00

first entry to fcn , parameters of current step follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.3396262428D+03  0.00000D+00  0.45951D+01  0.00000D+00

new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry     4  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.3411412209D+03  0.15749D-01  0.45951D+01 -0.29047D-01

new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry     9  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.3616140780D+03  0.91950D+00  0.45952D+01 -0.22774D-01

new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    12  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.3638217837D+03  0.99358D+00  0.45658D+01  0.21078D-01

new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    14  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.3638515488D+03  0.10269D+01  0.45590D+01  0.21917D-01

new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    16  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.3638518202D+03  0.10262D+01  0.45229D+01  0.21445D-01

step to unallowed region , parameters for fcn entry    21 follow - - x(i)
                     0.16853D+01 -0.26011D+03 -0.59223D-01

step to unallowed region , parameters for fcn entry    22 follow - - x(i)
                     0.13576D+01 -0.12853D+03 -0.19113D-01

step to unallowed region , parameters for fcn entry    23 follow - - x(i)
                     0.11937D+01 -0.62736D+02  0.94190D-03

step to unallowed region , parameters for fcn entry    24 follow - - x(i)
                     0.11118D+01 -0.29841D+02  0.10969D-01

new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    30  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.3638826208D+03  0.10317D+01  0.30543D+01  0.20997D-01

new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    37  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.3639107344D+03  0.10317D+01  0.21380D+01  0.20997D-01

new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    42  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.3639107450D+03  0.10317D+01  0.21380D+01  0.20909D-01

new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    50  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.3639144106D+03  0.10429D+01  0.21380D+01  0.20909D-01

new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    58  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.3639144106D+03  0.10429D+01  0.21380D+01  0.20909D-01

new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    62  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.3639184186D+03  0.10429D+01  0.19041D+01  0.20909D-01

new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    67  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.3639185591D+03  0.10429D+01  0.19041D+01  0.21229D-01

new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    73  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.3639192867D+03  0.10479D+01  0.19041D+01  0.21229D-01

new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    80  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.3639198324D+03  0.10499D+01  0.18089D+01  0.21359D-01

new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    84  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.3639198499D+03  0.10499D+01  0.18089D+01  0.21472D-01

new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    90  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.3639198549D+03  0.10504D+01  0.18089D+01  0.21472D-01

new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    98  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.3639198552D+03  0.10503D+01  0.18108D+01  0.21470D-01

new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry   104  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.3639198561D+03  0.10504D+01  0.18112D+01  0.21496D-01

new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry   109  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.3639198561D+03  0.10504D+01  0.18112D+01  0.21496D-01

new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry   115  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.3639198561D+03  0.10504D+01  0.18116D+01  0.21496D-01

new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry   122  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.3639198561D+03  0.10504D+01  0.18117D+01  0.21497D-01

new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry   134  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.3639198561D+03  0.10504D+01  0.18117D+01  0.21497D-01

new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry   140  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.3639198561D+03  0.10504D+01  0.18117D+01  0.21497D-01

new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry   146  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.3639198561D+03  0.10504D+01  0.18117D+01  0.21497D-01

new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry   154  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.3639198561D+03  0.10504D+01  0.18117D+01  0.21497D-01

new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry   157  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.3639198561D+03  0.10504D+01  0.18117D+01  0.21497D-01

new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry   165  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.3639198561D+03  0.10504D+01  0.18117D+01  0.21497D-01

new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry   170  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.3639198561D+03  0.10504D+01  0.18117D+01  0.21497D-01

new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry   185  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.3639198561D+03  0.10504D+01  0.18117D+01  0.21497D-01


the function (fcn) has not improved by    0.10000D-06 after 3 steps which include a minimum - - -


therefore the run has been terminated
  -0.3639198561D+03  0.10504D+01  0.18117D+01  0.21497D-01


all numbers of last entry refer to final pt. of run


the lowest value of the function (fcn) was  -0.3639198561D+03 for entry  185 - - x(i) follows
  0.10504E+01  0.18117E+01  0.21497E-01



run statistics follow - -

 nfcn=  187 nst=   29


MRS of X(l) with respect to X(k) - at the sample means
===================================================================================================================================
        X(k) POP         REVE        LANGFR      UTILITY     CONSTANT  
X(l)
===================================================================================================================================

POP          0.1000D+01  0.1624D+03  0.1834D+04  0.4330D+07 -0.7004D+07

REVE         0.6159D-02  0.1000D+01  0.1129D+02  0.2667D+05 -0.4313D+05

LANGFR       0.5454D-03  0.8855D-01  0.1000D+01  0.2362D+04 -0.3820D+04

UTILITY      0.2309D-06  0.3750D-04  0.4234D-03  0.1000D+01 -0.1617D+01

CONSTANT    -0.1428D-06 -0.2318D-04 -0.2618D-03 -0.6183D+00  0.1000D+01


FINAL ESTIMATES

             LAM    PARAMETER      STD-ERROR        STUDENT-T      STUDENT-T    GRADIENT       DERIV.Y         ELAST.Y
                                   (CONDIT.)        (CONDIT.)      (CONDIT.)                   DERIV.E(Y)      ELAST.E(Y)
                                                    (PAR = 0)      (PAR = 1)

POP           X1  0.1371651D+01  0.6446212D-01     21.2784032                -0.3124020D-08  0.3930031D+00      1.4098397
                                 0.4575663D-01     29.9771015                                0.4242852D+00      1.4406533

REVE          X1  0.1986189D+01  0.8010840D+00      2.4793768                -0.1915733D-08  0.6381018D+02      1.8404134
                                 0.7930091D+00      2.5046235                                0.6830818D+02      1.8906625

LANGFR        X1  0.4212294D+00  0.1083727D+00      3.8868582                -0.9423495D-09  0.7205804D+03      0.3576741
                                 0.9537639D-01      4.4164952                                0.9098762D+03      0.3662355

UTILITY       X1  0.7806878D+00  0.1854142D+00      4.2105078                 0.1359069D-08  0.1701706D+07      0.5665335
                                 0.3003263D-01     25.9946510                                0.2462702D+08      0.5453342

CONSTANT      X0 -0.2407558D+02  0.7427566D+01     -3.2413820                -0.2122847D-09 -0.2752398D+07    -18.6402568
                                 0.7099785D+01     -3.3910291                               -0.2961107D+07    -19.1498418

VAR(W)            0.1072360D+00  0.3855558D-01      2.7813363                 0.0000000D+00
                                 0.1966814D-01      5.4522726
 
RHO1      (E)     0.7819453D+00  0.6206286D-01     12.5992471                 0.3048424D-06
                                 0.6190838D-01     12.6306846
PI1       (E)     0.8595672D+00  0.3123499D+00      2.7519369     -0.4496011  0.2644815D-05
                                 0.3118093D+00      2.7567079     -0.4503805
 
LAM(Y)    (E)     0.2149724D-01  0.1550819D-01      1.3861867    -63.0958771  0.2379781D-04
LAM(X1)   (E)     0.2149724D-01  0.1550819D-01      1.3861867    -63.0958771  0.2379781D-04

LAM(Y) is set equal to LAM(X1).


LOG-LIKELIHOOD = -0.1293941D+04

NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS              =            120

PEARSON-R2(E) (unadjusted)          =         0.9514
PEARSON-R2(E) (adjusted for D.F.)   =         0.9484

PSEUDO-R2(L)  (unadjusted)          =         0.9789
PSEUDO-R2(L)  (adjusted for D.F.)   =         0.9776

PROBABILITY of Y to be at the limit =         0.0000
MEAN VALUE of E(Y)                  =  0.1642378D+06

MEAN of residual W                  = -0.2109179D-01
VARIANCE of residual W              =  0.1072360D+00
95% CONFIDENCE INTERVAL for residual W
Lower Bound = -0.6629313D+00   Upper Bound =  0.6207478D+00


CPU TIME:      4.44 sec
